Better Living Through Thinking
J.D. Eggleston in Freakonomics: How Valid are T.V. Weather Forecasts?
Tue, 22 Apr 2008
I've been wanting to do this for years, I'm glad someone finally did it:
<http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/>
Some actual quotes from forecasters:
We have no idea s going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days
out.
There's not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring
meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy.
All that viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big
deal to viewers.
And consider this:
The graph above shows that stations get their precipitation
predictions correct about 85 percent of the time one day out and
decline to about 73 percent seven days out.
On the surface, that would not seem too bad. But consider that if a meteorologist always predicted that it would never rain, they would be right 86.3 percent of the time. So if a viewer was looking for more certainty than just assuming it will not rain, a successful meteorologist would have to be better than 86.3 percent. Three of the forecasters were about 87 percent at one out day a hair over the threshold for success.
On the surface, that would not seem too bad. But consider that if a meteorologist always predicted that it would never rain, they would be right 86.3 percent of the time. So if a viewer was looking for more certainty than just assuming it will not rain, a successful meteorologist would have to be better than 86.3 percent. Three of the forecasters were about 87 percent at one out day a hair over the threshold for success.
"Sadly," Eggleston says, "it gets worse." And it does--weather forecasting is a truly amazing form of entertainment (albeit inaccurate).
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